We are delighted to host Andrés Colubri, Assistant Professor in the Program of Bioinformatics and Integrative Biology at the University Massachusetts Chan Medical School.
Title: Studying the Effect of Human Behaviour on Pathogen Transmission Dynamics with a Novel Platform for Experimental Epidemic Games
Date: 27 March 2025
Time: 14:00 – 15:00
Mode: Hybrid
Inperson: BDI/OxPop seminar room 0
Online
MS teams
Meeting ID: 390 320 918 027
Passcode: tB7JU7xn
Chair: Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
Dr Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths is a Lecturer in Applied Probability and Statistics at The Queen’s College, a co-director of the EPSRC Healthcare Data Science CDT at the Big Data Institute and a Senior Research Fellow at the Pandemic Sciences Institute at University of Oxford. She has mathematics and statistics background and a track record in modelling infectious diseases including HIV, measles, seasonal and pandemic influenza and more recently COVID-19. Her multidisciplinary group, across the Pandemic Sciences Institute at University of Oxford and the UK Health Security Agency, uses mathematical and statistical modelling to inform policy with a focus on outbreak analyses, pandemic preparedness and evaluation of different immunisation policies
Abstract
Effective infectious disease control requires understanding transmission dynamics and behavioral factors influencing non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and quarantining. We conducted a two-week gamified epidemic experiment at an international university campus, with nearly 1,000 students using a Bluetooth-enabled app to track the spread of a digital pathogen. The app captured real-time behavioral and epidemiological data. We used this data to parametrize a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model with time-varying transmission rates to incorporate behavioral feedback and assess intervention efficacy. Results show that NPIs alone may not reduce transmission without increased risk perception and compliance. High adherence and awareness lowered infections, highlighting the interplay between behavior and transmission. Our findings align with real-life outbreaks, emphasizing the role of super-spreaders. This study demonstrates the necessity of integrating behavioral dynamics into epidemiological models to improve predictions and public health strategies, and how experimental games could provide a proxy for observing epidemics in human populations.
Speaker Biography
Andrés Colubri is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Genomics and Computational Biology at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School. He holds a PhD in Mathematics from the Universidad Nacional del Sur in Argentina and an MFA from the Design Media Arts Department at UCLA. He has collaborated with scientists from diverse fields and contributed to projects in bioinformatics, data visualization, code-based art, and education. Building on this multidisciplinary background, his lab brings together computational scientists, software engineers, and visual designers to develop new methods and tools for infectious disease research. The lab is currently implementing the novel platform Epidemica for open world “experimental epidemic simulations”, built on the Operation Outbreak (OO) proximity-sensing app that Andrés created with collaborators from the Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT in 2018. OO has been deployed in over 100 educational and research simulations involving nearly 10,000 participants through 2025. Epidemica will extend the OO technology to allow researchers to empirically study how human behavior affects infectious disease transmission across various cultural contexts and transmission modes. Experts have recognized these simulations as the closest proxy for observing actual pathogen spread in human populations.
Please register to attend this event – forms.office.com/e/kzHC6Yxn57?origin=lprLink
