The preliminary lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war are not new; at their core these lessons have been described by military strategists throughout history. They are, however, an uncomfortable reminder that warfare is complicated and inherently complex, and combinations of, for example, human behaviour and fast innovation contribute to fast adaptive cycles and, arguably, increased unpredictability. Flexibility, adaptability, and the ability to deal with what von Clausewitz referred to as ‘friction’ have been emphasised as being important by military strategists, but in practice western approaches to military strategy remain largely ‘static’. Maintaining or gaining competitive advantage in an unpredictable multipolar world arguably requires more non-static and systemic approaches to strategy making, but this is easier said than done. In this seminar Maria will explore the interdisciplinary foundations for a practical theory of adaptive strategy drawing from literature on military strategy, complexity science, behavioural science, and international relations.

Maria is a senior research fellow at the SST-CCW Centre at Oxford University. Her research focuses on systems theory and the analysis and influence of strategic behaviour in conflict and warfare, looking at different levers of power. Before joining SST-CCW Maria led a team of intelligence analysts at TRSSI, a subsidiary of Thomson Reuters. She has been working as a consultant and advisor in both the public and private sector.