On 28th November OxTalks will move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events' (full details are available on the Staff Gateway).
There will be an OxTalks freeze beginning on Friday 14th November. This means you will need to publish any of your known events to OxTalks by then as there will be no facility to publish or edit events in that fortnight. During the freeze, all events will be migrated to the new Oxford Events site. It will still be possible to view events on OxTalks during this time.
If you have any questions, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
Beliefs and decisions are often based on confronting models with data. What is the largest “fake” correlation that a misspecified model can generate, even when it passes an elementary misspecification test? We study an “analyst” who fits a model, represented by a directed acyclic graph, to an objective (multivariate) Gaussian distribution. We characterize the maximal estimated pairwise correlation for generic Gaussian objective distributions, subject to the constraint that the estimated model preserves the marginal distribution of any individual variable. As the number of model variables grows, the estimated correlation can become arbitrarily close to one, regardless of the objective correlation
Link to paper: 297ff237-12bb-4686-9983-60da8eb1eb5d.filesusr.com/ugd/90366b_f660300e9e8a4b1fabd5e35c6c8a78f4.pdf
Please sign up for meetings here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0KdCfEkG4LYBuDSCLxyGRSEULv3_smLEEQMofG4X5U/edit#gid=0
