Racial disparities in policing are well documented. In addition to officer animus towards some groups (“taste-based discrimination”), these could be driven by officers’ beliefs that crime rates are higher in some communities (“statistical discrimination”). But where do these beliefs come from, and what if they are incorrect? We analyze a formal model where officers form beliefs using crime statistics, but make a common inferential mistake by not fully adjusting for the fact that they will detect more crime in more heavily policed communities. This creates a feedback loop where officers (incorrectly) believe there is relatively more crime in communities that are policed intensely, leading to persistent over-policing. We also show that discrimination driven by false beliefs is contagious across officers. This means that inferential mistakes can exacerbate discrimination even among officers with no animus and who sincerely believe disparities are driven by real differences in crime rates.

Link to paper: andrewtlittle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Institutional_Police_Bias-5.pdf

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