Following a recent simulation of a scenario where there was a ‘failure of deterrence’, Rob Johnson examines the implications of recent geopolitical developments, asking how accurate our analyses are. He examines the challenges of critical evaluation in this period of change in the international situation and how urgent it is for scholars to develop a better understanding of escalation, deterrence, and coercion. He offers an assessment based on the interactions of recent policy trajectories, highlighting where there are threats and opportunities, and advocates a new approach to the study of strategic decision-making.

Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of SST-CCW and a Senior Research Fellow of Pembroke College, University of Oxford. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Defence University Staff College and Adjunct Professor of Strategic Studies at Rennes School of Business in France. He is a historian, strategic studies and International Relations scholar combining academic analyses with ‘knowledge exchange’ policy impact.

Dr Johnson was the first Director of the UK Office of Net Assessment and Challenge, working closely with the Secretary of State for Defence, Ministers, and Cabinet Office. He continues to advise and delivers direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters. His bespoke advisory support is not limited to the United Kingdom, but is requested by governments and armed forces in the United States, Europe, and Australia. He is prominent within professional military education, as a member of the advisory panel of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, lecturer for the Royal College of Defence Studies, and as the director of ‘insight and understanding’ study days and workshops. His former military career involved innovations in counter-terrorism, counterinsurgency, and a clear understanding of the requirements and thinking of the armed services. He is specialist in military strategy, operations, military conceptual developments, and strategic decision making.