Economic security has become a top policy concern for governments across the world, yet each policy measure runs the risk of triggering a retaliatory countermeasure, leading states into an economic security dilemma, and potentially greater insecurity. Traditional international relations theory suggests that escaping such a dilemma requires clear signalling of offensive/defensive postures. Yet the same might not apply in the economic arena. This talk examines the US-China economic security dilemma by unpacking China’s evolving approach to economic security. The paper proposes a typology of economic security governance roles resting on differences in purpose (market-building/curbing) and posture (offensive/defensive). Using an original corpus of Chinese policy documents, the empirical analysis shows that when it comes to economic security, the offensive/defensive postures do not directly predict the likelihood of entering a security dilemma. Rather, perceptions of differences in market-building and market-curbing purposes are more likely to lead to escalation by a foreign partner. The findings of this study contribute to understanding the security spillovers (both positive and negative) of national industrial policies, and add to debates on how to overcome a security dilemma in a globalized economy.

Dr Yeling Tan is Professor of Public Policy at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government. She is also a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Her areas of research are in international trade, globalization, economic development and industrial policy, with a focus on China. She holds a PhD and an MPA from Harvard University, and a BA from Stanford University. Dr Tan’s latest book is Disaggregating China, Inc: State Strategies in the Liberal Economic Order, which has been awarded the Katzenstein and Georgetown Lepgold book prizes. Her articles have been published in Comparative Political Studies, the Review of International Organizations, International Studies Quarterly, Review of International Political Economy, and the China Journal, among others. She has also written for Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy and Bloomberg Opinion.