What should we make of the role of AI in elections?

This talk critically examines the impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) on elections. Despite concerns about AI enabling more efficient and effective voter targeting and persuasion, as well as more effective misinformation and disinformation, I argue that the influence of AI on election outcomes is – for now – overestimated. This talk identifies several factors behind this overestimation: the inherent challenges of mass persuasion, the difficulty of reaching target audiences in oversaturated media environments, and the limited effectiveness of AI-driven microtargeting in political campaigns. Additionally, the socio-economic, cultural, and personal factors that shape voting behaviour challenge simplistic assumption about an outsized impact of AI on electoral behaviour. While acknowledging AI’s risks, such as amplifying social inequalities or as a source of information, this talk argues that focusing mainly on AI may distract from more structural threats to elections and democracy, including voter disenfranchisement and attacks on election integrity.