In today’s world of profound uncertainty, traditional decision-making frameworks fall short. Where appropriate, we can assess and evaluate probabilities for well-defined events. But when facing “deep” uncertainty, where we cannot even imagine all the possible futures, conventional methods become impractical.

This talk by eminent statistician David Spiegelhalter explores some essential qualities for navigating our uncertain age. By cultivating imagination, humility and resilience, we can better face an unpredictable future—not by eliminating uncertainty, but by developing the capacity to adapt and recover when the unexpected inevitably occurs.