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Social democratic parties across Europe have increasingly adopted restrictive immigration rhetoric in response to the electoral successes of radical right parties; however, the consequences of such accommodation remain contested. Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte, Associate Professor of Quantitative Political Science, will explore this topic by discussing the design and results of a study examining how attitudes may have changed following UK Labour leader Keir Starmer’s “Island of Strangers” speech, in which he adopted a significantly more rigid stance on immigration.
The study compares opinions before and after hearing the speech, and concludes that exposure significantly altered perceptions of Labour, making it appear more anti-immigration and right-leaning. Crucially, these shifts carried a cost: the likelihood of intending to vote for Labour declined following the speech, with no evidence that Labour’s adoption of nativist rhetoric reduced the appeal of the radical-right party Reform UK.
The findings highlight the risks of strategic convergence, showing that accommodation of exclusionary rhetoric by social democratic parties does more damage to their own electoral prospects than those of their radical-right competitors.
Register to join on Zoom: zoom.us/meeting/register/pbFSmnaxQcq9n70pS2PBZA
