Central Asia is severely affected by climate change and water stress, a situation which is exacerbated by authoritarianism and lack of investment. Computerised modelling of water conflict risks can help identify potential flashpoints for intra- and international conflict, but is limited by a paucity of good quality data and by machines’ inability to adequately assess qualitative factors affecting countries with weak governance and management systems. Decision-makers’ unwillingness to actively engage with and mitigate known threats is also of significant concern, as prolonged inaction reduces the likelihood that conflict can be averted. In this context, Ibbotson will discuss three case studies which may present future challenges to local, national and regional stability: the location of headwaters in the Wakhan Corridor; the construction of the Kosh Tepe Canal; and drought in Karakalpakstan.

Sophie Ibbotson is the Chairman of the Royal Society for Asian Affairs. She works primarily as a consultant to the World Bank and national governments, with a focus on economic development and water security in emerging markets and fragile states. As a 2023/24 Visiting Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre, Sophie examined the forecasting and mitigation of water conflicts in Afghanistan and Central Asia; and she is currently writing the first biography of the Amu Darya (River Oxus), from its source in Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor to the ill-fated Aral Sea.