OxTalks will soon be transitioning to Oxford Events (full details are available on the Staff Gateway). A two-week publishing freeze is expected to start before the end of Hilary Term to allow all future events to be migrated to the new platform. During this period, you will not be able to submit or edit events on OxTalks. The exact freeze dates will be confirmed on the Staff Gateway and via email to identified OxTalks users.
If you have any questions, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
How does the climatic experience of previous generations affect today’s assessment of the importance of environmental concerns? We study this question by bringing together broad empirical evidence —spanning individual survey responses and group-level cultural records— with a new theory of costly environmental attention shaped by evolutionary cultural transmission across generations. We show that the intensity of ancestral climate anomalies leaves a persistent imprint on the perceived stakes of accounting for environmental considerations in decision-making (the subjective value of attention). The relationship is U-shaped: descendants of groups who faced more stable or more volatile climates report a higher importance of environmental considerations, with a dip at intermediate variability. Environmental content in folklore displays the same U-shape, consistent with a cultural-transmission channel linking ancestral experience to contemporary perceptions. We develop a general model in which environmental attention is a costly, endogenous choice made before climate conditions are realised, and perceptions of its stakes evolve through intergenerational transmission shaped by differential success. Because attention is chosen ex ante, evolutionary pressure is too imprecise to select for accurate perceptions state-by-state: it only disciplines perceptions through average realised payoffs under the climate distribution a group experiences, generating persistence in perceived stakes across generations. Finally, when attention serves two functions—using typical conditions effectively and protecting against extreme events—the model rationalises the U-shaped dependence of perceived stakes on ancestral climate variability.