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Understanding India’s energy future is important for both the country’s development and global climate policy. Based on a review of seven national energy and climate modelling studies, this presentation will compare and analyse projections of India’s energy supply and demand, as well as estimated carbon emissions. The comparison of results shows that the predictions for Indian energy and emissions diverge widely across models, producing uncertainty and limiting their usefulness for policymaking. The presentation will discuss the implications of this uncertainty, and the different factors that can influence how the broad trends of India’s energy future will unfold. These include structural pressures, development needs, and policy responses. Of these areas, a particularly underdeveloped area of opportunity to reduce lock-in lies in managing energy demand, within the context of rapid urbanization and an energy access transition. The presentation concludes with potentially fruitful areas of research that can support India’s energy and climate planning.
