Can AI make strategic choices, and do they look anything like human ones? Here, we outline our ongoing research into machine decision-making in military scenarios. Using dynamic crisis simulations, we are exploring aspects of strategic theory – including deterrence, compellence and escalation. Early findings point to a distinctive ‘machine psychology’ that is in some respects similar to humans – with biases and heuristics; but in others very different. 

Kenneth Payne is Professor of Strategy at King’s College London, where he researches the role of Artificial Intelligence in national security. He’s the author of four books on strategy, most recently I Warbot: The Dawn of Artificially Intelligent Conflict. This book looked ahead to the battlefield of the near future and considered the prospects for creative artificial strategists. I Warbot was named a book of the year by The Economist newspaper and the leading academic journal, International Affairs.

 Professor Payne is a Commissioner of the Global Commission for Responsible AI in the Military Domain. He currently serves as Specialist Advisor to the UK Parliament’s Defence Committee for its work on AI. He contributed to the US National Security Commission on AI, and has been invited to consult with the UN Secretary General’s high-level advisory body on AI.

This talk will be supported by Leo Keay, a PhD Student in War Studies at KCL and Baptiste Alloui-Cros, a DPhil student in DPIR, Oxford.