OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
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Paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3070154
Abstract:
We seek to identify the impact of forecast uncertainty using damages from hurricane strikes where feedback is less of a concern. We propose a theoretical framework in which uncertainty can have an economic impact when operating through beliefs about adaptation. To test this, we embed ex-post forecast uncertainty into a general model of hurricane damages and use general-to-specific model selection methods to simplify. We find that a 1 percent increase in the ex-post forecast error shock is associated with a 0.25-0.5 percent increase in damages. This implies a fall in local economic growth by 0.11-0.23 percentage points.
