On 28th November OxTalks will move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events' (full details are available on the Staff Gateway).
There will be an OxTalks freeze beginning on Friday 14th November. This means you will need to publish any of your known events to OxTalks by then as there will be no facility to publish or edit events in that fortnight. During the freeze, all events will be migrated to the new Oxford Events site. It will still be possible to view events on OxTalks during this time.
If you have any questions, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
Paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3070154
Abstract:
We seek to identify the impact of forecast uncertainty using damages from hurricane strikes where feedback is less of a concern. We propose a theoretical framework in which uncertainty can have an economic impact when operating through beliefs about adaptation. To test this, we embed ex-post forecast uncertainty into a general model of hurricane damages and use general-to-specific model selection methods to simplify. We find that a 1 percent increase in the ex-post forecast error shock is associated with a 0.25-0.5 percent increase in damages. This implies a fall in local economic growth by 0.11-0.23 percentage points.
