The last year has been marked by a dramatic turn away from multilateral cooperation towards the assertion of national interest. Many attribute this directly to the re-election of President Trump, and while he is the most prominent spokesman and catalyst for this change, the talk will trace how the US move away from multilateral cooperation began much earlier. This shift is also not limited to the US, as other countries also focus on the promotion of national interest over international solidarity.

A phrase that has been used to describe the new condition of international politics is: “multipolarity with Trump characteristics.” This deliberately borrows from an earlier apparent conversion of the multilateral system to one where China played a much more important part. That competition between the US and China is now playing out across a range of international political and trade issues, including leadership in institutions such as the United Nations and BWIs. And as these rivals tussle for influence, a range of new emerging powers such as Brazil, India, South Africa and others demand a greater role. They, together with many smaller countries, fear the collapse of the multilateral value system associated with rule-of-law. The talk will describe this three way tug of war for influence and its likely outcomes.