Mathematical modelling as part of an HIV clinical trial in sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, almost 38 million people are living with HIV. HPTN 071 (PopART) is the largest HIV prevention trial to date, taking place in 21 communities in Zambia and South Africa with a combined population of more than 1 million people. As part of the trial an individual-based mathematical model was developed to help in planning the trial, to help interpret the results of the trial, and to make projections both into the future and to areas where the trial did not take place. In this talk I will outline the individual-based mathematical model used in the trial, the inference framework, and will discuss examples of how the results from the model have been used to help inform policy decisions.