In times of turbulence and uncertainty, scenarios – narrative descriptions of contrasting, plausible futures – can provide the basis for strategic dialogue, creative thinking, and judicious decision-making, as well as “interesting research” that is both rigorous and actionable. Although usually associated with the social sciences and industry, building scenarios requires skills closely aligned with the humanities, and offers a fresh perspective on many ambiguous or debatable issues via the systemic “manufactured hindsight” of multiple contrasting futures. Scenario work can also usefully encourage epistemic humility – asking, not “which future do we think we want from the limits of our perspective in the present?”, but “how will different potential futures perceive our choices and values in hindsight?”.

This highly participatory session will introduce a current scenario set for the future of global healthcare created at Griffith University using a variant of the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach developed at the Saïd Business School. The approach has well-established uses in medicine and healthcare (United European Gastroenterology, 2014; IMAJINE, 2022; Ramírez et. al, 2023; Finch, 2024; Lang and Carson, 2025).

The event offers attendees the opportunity to discuss how medical humanities expertise (such as medical ethics and history) and their wider context may evolve in ways beyond current expectations (Lang and Ramírez (2024)‘s so-called “ghost scenario”), as well as learning about Oxford-style scenario planning and exploring how the medical humanities may usefully speak to broader questions of strategy, policy, and foresight across systems of health and care.

Lead Facilitator: Dr Matt Finch, Saïd Business School, University of Oxford; Co-Facilitator: Dr Sarah Dry
www.torch.ox.ac.uk/event/scenario-planning-and-the-medical-humanities-a-workshop-for-uncertain-times