The New Cold War and Trump 2.0

This talk opens with a look at the background to the New Cold War. The conjunction between a big political change – the shift from the Western world order to deep pluralism – plus the deepening of the Anthropocene crisis, make for a complex, volatile, and unlucky background of world politics. The second part looks at the concept of cold war, and at the two cases of it, the first running from 1947-1989, and the second beginning in 2014. The third part looks at the impact of Trump 2.0 on the Second Cold War. While there are significant continuities, there are also some big changes. Foremost amongst these are the weakening and possible breakup of the West as a bloc, and the shift of the US towards a fascist/far-right group of great powers. Great power alignments have become more fluid, and Europe faces very serious questions about whether it can stand its ground in a great power international society dominated by the fascist/far-right and China. It is still early days in Trump 2.0, and the picture is far from settled. The conclusions look at how the background conditions of world (dis)order might play into the Second Cold War. Will they escalate conflict, or re-set thinking about world order towards some form of Cold Peace? Are we moving to an altered version (CW 2.1) or to something quite different (CW3)?