Emerging evidence suggests climate change may contribute to human violence, but it is unclear why associations exist. In this seminar, Dr Sokol will present a case study of Wayne County, Michigan. This case study employed distributed lag models (DLMs) to evaluate associations of different types of extreme weather with firearm violence and child maltreatment in Wayne County, Michigan between 2014-2022. To understand contextual influences, models used data from before (2018–2019), during (March 2020–March 2021), and after (2022–2023) the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall findings suggest that, for firearm violence, extreme weather immediately reduced risk, with effects waning as people likely resumed regular activities. Yet for child maltreatment, extreme weather created accumulating risk over several days when it disrupted an already stressed environment.

Dr Sokol will discuss how this study informs the Hazard-Violence Model–a novel conceptual model of extreme weather’s association with interpersonal violence, including community and home-based violence. The seminar will conclude with discussing implications for theory development, future research, and policy.

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Speaker bio: Rebeccah Sokol is an associate professor at the University of Michigan School of Social Work and a faculty member of the Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention. Her research programme evaluates strategies to promote child and adolescent safety, with a focus on recognising and addressing fundamental causes of violence. Dr Sokol collaborates with interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral teams to understand the effects of programmes and policies that address material hardships on youth safety.

Dr Sokol holds an Astor Visitor Lectureship.
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Booking is required for people outside of the Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI). DSPI Members do not need to register.