The extant literature suggests that a dramatic move to weaken the power of a large segment of the military elite would invite collective resistance against the dictator. Yet, other theoretical work suggests that the dictator can divide even a powerful elite by offering selective incentives to a subset, thus forestalling collective resistance even in the midst of a naked power grab. In ‘Compensation and the Consolidation of Authoritarian Power: Evidence from China’s 2016 PLA Reform’, Keng-Chi Chang, Victor Shih and Hans H. Tung examine the dynamics of this path to power consolidation through China’s 2016 reform of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). They draw on an original database of Chinese top leaders’ activities and factional ties with PLA officers to show Xi Jinping compensated senior officers in units affected by the reform without displaying favouritism to his followers during its gestation period. After the reform, however, factionalism dominated instead. The paper unpacks how a dictator personalizes political power in a highly institutionalized setting.

Victor C. Shih is Director of the 21st Century China Center and Ho Miu Lam Chair Professor in China and Pacific Relations at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego, specializing in China. He is the author of a book published by the Cambridge University Press, entitled Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, and also a new book Coalitions of the Weak: Elite Politics in China from Mao’s Stratagem to the Rise of Xi. He is also editor of Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability: Duration, Institutions and Financial Conditions, published by the University of Michigan Press. He is further the author of numerous articles appearing in academic and business journals, including The Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences, The American Political Science Review, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, and The Wall Street Journal. Shih served as principal in The Carlyle Group’s global market strategy group and continues to advise the financial community on China related issues. Shih graduated summa cum laude at the George Washington University and received his PhD in government from Harvard University. He is currently working on several papers using quantitative data to analyse the Chinese political elite, local debt in China and China’s analysis of the US.