The mainstream position is that a combination of technology and strategy is pushing us to a world where crises in maritime Asia will be more stable, taking the form of a defensive standoff. We believe that view is overly optimistic, for it overlooks how operational culture, bureaucratic incentives, and the temptation to strike first are creating the circumstances for a perfect storm. In our talk, we will outline what the dangers are and why we need to pay more attention to them.

Jonathan D. Caverley is Professor of Strategy in the Strategic & Operational Research Department of the Naval War College’s Center for Naval Warfare Studies and a Research Scientist in Political Science and Security Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Dr. Peter Dombrowski is the William D. Ruger Chair of National Security Economics Strategic and Operational Research Department at the Naval War College.