How will economic growth evolve in the long run? This session explores the wide range of plausible scenarios. Aghion, Jones & Jones 2017 analyze how artificial intelligence may super-charge the growth trajectory, causing a potential speed-up in economic growth as either production or the process of innovation itself – often considered the main driver of economic growth – become more and more automated. In the limit, these processes may lead to growth singularities. By contrast, Jones 2020 uses a similar framework to show that a markedly different outcome is possible – continuously declining living standards – if population growth becomes negative and slows down the process of ideas production.
The session will be moderated by Anton Korinek (UVA) and will feature Rachael Ngai (LSE) and Phil Trammell (Oxford) as discussants.