OxTalks will soon move to the new Halo platform and will become 'Oxford Events.' There will be a need for an OxTalks freeze. This was previously planned for Friday 14th November – a new date will be shared as soon as it is available (full details will be available on the Staff Gateway).
In the meantime, the OxTalks site will remain active and events will continue to be published.
If staff have any questions about the Oxford Events launch, please contact halo@digital.ox.ac.uk
Economic and climate time series exhibit many commonalities. Both are subject to non-stationarities in the form of evolving stochastic trends and sudden distributional shifts, with incomplete knowledge of the processes generating the data (DGP). Consequently, the well-developed machinery for modelling economic time series can be fruitfully applied to climate time series. We discuss the model selection methodology for locating an unknown DGP nested within a large set of possible explanations, including dynamics, outliers, shifts, and non-linearities, using Autometrics, a variant of machine learning capable of implementing indicator saturation estimators. After a brief excursion into climate science, we illustrate the approach by investigating the causal role of CO2 in Ice Ages and the UK’s highly non-stationary annual CO2 emissions over the last 150 years, and draw some policy implications facing a claimed net zero target by 2050 in the absence of any clear strategy for achieving it.