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In this talk, I will review work in the group on the mathematical models and approaches we have used to understanding pandemic preparedness. Our recent work on modelling the role of diagnostic testing highlights the epidemiological consequences of early detection of what the WHO refer to as Disease ‘X’; a novel pathogen with pandemic potential. The ongoing situation with COVID-19 has allowed us, through ‘fieldwork’, to investigate the role of different diagnostic approaches to determine levels of disease when the pathogen has latent and asymptomatic states. Coupling this with our recent mathematical modelling work on lockdown exit and quarantining strategies, I will discuss approaches for pandemic preparedness.
