There is general scientific agreement on the need for transformative change in order to address the systemic poly-crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss and growing inequalities globally. However, what this transformative change is and what the future looks like if we are able to achieve it remains opaque. It is important to recognise that there is a plurality of desirable futures that could emerge from transformative interventions; these aspirational futures will look different in different contexts and from different people’s perspectives and knowledge systems. When it comes to detailing how to achieve these outcomes, there is a dearth of scenarios detailing preferable futures for people and nature. In this talk, I will unpack some of the thinking that has gone into trying to address this gap through the development of the Nature Futures Framework. I will also outline some of the capacities that are needed in order to expand and further develop the framework, especially in the context of modelling how to achieve a safe and just future for all life on Earth- a task currently being undertaken by the Transformation Pathways workstream of the Earth Commission.

Laura Pereira is a Professor in Sustainability Transformations and Futures at the Global Change Institute, Wits University and a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University. She is an interdisciplinary sustainability scientist, having been trained in ecology, law, zoology and human geography. She completed her DPhil in Geography at St Hilda’s College, Oxford in 2012, before working internationally at various institutions including the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, the University of Cape Town, Stellenbosch University, City University of London and Utrecht University. She is interested in the role of futures thinking in enabling transformative change and in developing innovative methods for knowledge co-production in Global South contexts, especially around issues of equity and justice in the construction of pathways to live within Earth System Boundaries. Laura is currently an Earth Commissioner and an expert in the IPBES Task Force on scenarios and models.

The Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery and Biodiversity Network are interested in promoting a wide variety of views and opinions on nature recovery from researchers and practitioners.

The views, opinions and positions expressed within this lecture are those of the author alone, they do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery/Biodiversity Network, or its researchers.