Recent econometric findings show that in addition to the annual mean temperature also day-to-day temperature variability and changes in the rainfall distribution have an impact on economic growth. Using these findings and the latest projections of the multi-model climate model ensemble, we project the next 20 years of economic change due to climate change. Since the climatic evolution of the next 20 years is already determined due to past emissions the resulting pressure on the regional economies can only be countered by socio-economic adaptation measures and can be considered as the economic commitment of climate change that we have already caused.

Anders Levermann is Head of Complexity Science at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He is a Professor of the Dynamics of the Climate System at Institute for Physics and Astrophysics of the Potsdam University, Germany. He has been involved in the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change since 2004 (contributing author to the paleoclimate chapter of the fourth assessment report, lead author of sea-level change chapter of the fifth report, lead author of the ocean, cryosphere and sea level chapter of the Sixth Assessment Report). Levermann advises political and economic stakeholders on the issue of climate change. He is adjunct Scientist at Columbia University, head of the global economic stability project and strategic advisor to global Asset Owner Alliance.